Using a panel of 21 OECD countries and 40 years of annual data, we find that countries with similar government budget positions tend to have business cycles that fluctuate more closely. That is, fiscal convergence (in the form of persistently similar ratios of government surplus/deficit to GDP)...

Studying all possible pairs of eleven major currencies and eleven portfolios in 1976-2008 we show that, when there is no leverage, carry trade is significantly profitable for most currency pairs and portfolios. Positive returns do not diminish in time providing a strong case against the...

Using eight unit root tests and a stationarity test and three decades of monthly data for the currencies between the US, Germany, UK and Switzerland, we find that, while spot exchange rates are non-stationary, long maturity forward rates are stationary.

Samples with overlapping observations are used for the study of uncovered interest rate parity, the predictability of long run stock returns, and the credibility of exchange rate target zones. This paper quantifies the biases in parameter estimation and size distortions of hypothesis tests of...

1) Competitiveness adjustment in struggling southern euro-area members requires persistently lower inflation than in major trading partners, but low inflation worsens public debt sustainability. When average euro-area inflation undershoots the two percent target, the conflict between intra-euro...

Highlights 1) Irrespective of the euro crisis, a European banking union makes sense, including for non-euro area countries, because of the extent of European Union financial integration. The Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM) is the first element of the banking union. 2) From the point of view...

This paper explores the influence of the economic cycle on labour mobility within the EU, focusing on the likely impact of the present economic crisis. To do so, we use an econometrically calibrated simulation and a case study of Ireland. We find that, in the short run, the crisis is likely to...

The global economic and financial crisis has raised further concerns about the euro-entry criteria, in addition to other factors, such as the effective tightening of the criteria due to the enlargement of the EU from 12 to 27 members, the highly unfavourable property of business cycle...

We analyze the impact of price stability-oriented monetary strategies (inflation targeting—IT—and constraining exchange rate arrangements) on inflation persistence using a time-varying coefficients framework in a panel of 68 countries (1993–2013). We show that explicit IT has a stronger...

Az értekezés négy önálló tanulmányból áll négy fő fejezetben, amelyek témáját összeköti az időben változó paraméterű ökonometriai modellek alkalmazása. Elsőként áttekintést adunk az időben változó paraméterű regressziók lehetséges becslési módszereiről, a...