We investigate the extent to which it is possible to detect asset-price booms and banking crises according to alternative identification strategies and we assess their robustness. We find some evidence that house price-booms are more likely to turn into costly recession or to trigger a banking...

Are specific developments in stock prices in line with fundamentals or do they reflect a rising bubble? And if the latter result applies, how is it possible to detect a bubble in real time? The answer to this question is of utmost relevance for a number of areas, not least for either financial...

This paper proposes a measure of real-time inflation expectations based on metadata, i.e., data about data, constructed from internet search queries performed on the search engine Google. The forecasting performance of the Google Inflation Search Index (GISI) is assessed relative to 37 other...

For decades, the academic literature has focused on three survey measures of expected inflation: the Livingston Survey, the Survey of Professional Forecasters, and the Michigan Survey. While these measures have been useful in developing models of forecasting inflation, the data are low frequency...

We apply recently developed early warning indicator systems to a cross-section of emerging markets. We find that, with little or no modification, models designed to predict asset price booms/busts in advanced countries may be useful for emerging markets. The concept of monitoring a set of asset...

Macro-feedback effects have been identified as a key missing element for more effective macro-prudential stress testing. To fill this gap, this paper develops a framework that facilitates the analysis of both the direct effects of macroeconomic shocks on the solvency of individual banks and...

We evaluate the reliability of credit gap measures estimated over time samples of different lengths. We augment our empirical analysis (which turned out to be somewhat inconclusive) with Monte Carlo experiments. For this purpose we build an agent-based model that realistically reproduces credit...

We test the ability of early warning indicators that appear in the literature to predict credit cycle peaks in a cross-section of emerging markets. Our results confirm that the standard credit gap indicator performs satisfactorily. The robustness of real-time credit cycle determination may...

Over the recent months, several initiatives have taken place to develop macro-prudential regulation in order to prevent systemic risk and the built-up of financial imbalances. Crucial to the success of such policy is the ability of the macro-prudential authority to identify in due time such...

Trade among people dates back to prehistoric times; before invention of money, a primitive system of exchange called barter existed. Barter has reemerged as an alternative to the dollar, attributable to high-magnitude financial crises such as the 2006 mortgage debacle and the ensuing global...