This paper examines two aspects of spot FX volatility. Using intra-daily quotation data on the Deutsche Mark/Dollar we simultaneously estimate the deterministic intra-daily seasonal pattern inherent in volatility and the effects of US macroeconomic announcements. The empirical specification and...

We consider a model of optimal bank closure rules (cum capital replenishment by banks), with Poisson-distributed audits of the banks asset value by the regulator, with the goal of eliminating (ameliorating) the incentives of levered bank shareholder/mangers to take excessive risks in their...

In this paper we construct a rational expectations model based on a Phillips curve that embodies persistence in inflation. As we assume that the central bank targets the natural rate of output, there is no inflation bias. We derive optimal monetary policy rules that are state-contingent and...

We compare the Sharpe rations of investment funds which combine one riskless and one risky asset following: i) timing strategies which forecast excess returns using simple regressions; ii) a strategy which uses multiple regression instead; and iii) a passive allocation which combines the funds in...

This lengthy paper extends the author's work on optimal planning of consumption versus capital accumulation to stochastic versions of traditional continuous-time one­sector growth models. Risk is assumed to be exogenous but is otherwise specified in a very general form. An optimal plan is...

Complex interactions between fundamentals and liquidity during unstable periods in financial markets are succinctly modeled with coordination games. We propose a flexible framework to estimate such a model and use the efficient method of moments as estimation procedure. We illustrate the model...

This paper explores the potential for violations of VaR subadditivity both theoretically and by simulations, and finds that for most practical applications VaR is subadditive. Hence, there is no reason to choose a more complicated risk measure than VaR, solely for reasons of coherence.