Long-term interest rates of small open economies correlate strongly with the US long-term rate. Can central banks in those countries decouple from the US? An estimated DSGE model for the UK (vis-`a-vis the US) establishes three structural empirical results. (1) Comovement arises due to nominal...

Public finances worldwide have been severely hit by the 2008-2009 Great Recession, stimulating the debate on the consequences of growing fiscal imbalances. Building on Paesani et al. (2006), this paper focuses on the USA, Germany and Italy over the 1983-2009 period and studies the effects of...

This paper explores the extent to which changes to long-term interest rates in major developed economies have influenced long-term government bond yields in emerging Asia. To gauge long-term interest spillover effects, the paper uses vector autoregressive variance decompositions with...

On 4 March 2011, SUERF – The European Money and Finance Forum and the National Bank of Poland jointly organised a conference on the theme of: "Monetary Policy after the Crisis". Following a call for papers with a large number of submissions, the scientific committee selected 9 papers, which...

This paper undertakes an empirical inquiry concerning the determinants of long-term interest rates on US Treasury securities. It applies the bounds testing procedure to cointegration and error correction models within the autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) framework, using monthly data and...

Extending the open-economy loanable funds model, this paper finds that more government deficit as a percentage of GDP does not lead to a higher government bond yield. In addition, a higher real Treasury bill rate, a higher expected inflation rate, a higher EU government bond yield, or an...