This study sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment surveys, and the expectations derived from them, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to macroeconomic and financial data. I examine 16...

Hasta la actualidad los métodos utilizados en el Banco Central de Bolivia para el pronóstico de inflación y otras variables importantes para decisiones de política monetaria han consistido en modelos individuales, principalmente estadísticos y econométricos. En los últimos años, en la...

The main goal of this paper is to better understand the behavior of credit spreads in the past and the potential risk of unexpected future credit spread changes. One important consideration to note regarding credit spreads is the fact that bond spreads contain a liquidity premium, which...

In recent years the issue of life expectancy has become of upmost importance to pension providers, insurance companies and the government bodies in the developed world. Significant and consistent improvements in mortality rates and hence life expectancy have led to unprecedented increases in the...

We present an actuarial loss reserving technique that takes into account both claim counts and claim amounts. Separate (over-dispersed) Poisson models for the claim counts and the claim amounts are combined by a joint embedding into a neural network architecture. As starting point of the neural...

The health of a population is affected by social, environmental, and economic factors. Pension providers and consultants, insurance companies, government agencies and individuals in the developed world have a vested interest in understanding how the economic growth will impact on the life...

The area of mortality modelling has received significant attention over the last 20 years owing to the need to quantify and forecast improving mortality rates. This need is driven primarily by the concern of governments, professionals, insurance and actuarial professionals and individuals to be...

We present a claims reserving technique that uses claim-specific feature and past payment information in order to estimate claims reserves for individual reported claims. We design one single neural network allowing us to estimate expected future cash flows for every individual reported claim....

We propose new neighbouring prediction models for mortality forecasting. For each mortality rate at age x in year t, denoted as mx,t, we construct images of neighbourhood mortality data around mx,t, i.e., ℇmx,t (x1, x2, s), which includes mortality information for ages in [x − x1, x + x2],...

We propose a new machine learning-based framework for long-term mortality forecasting. Based on ideas of neighbouring prediction, model ensembling, and tree boosting, this framework can significantly improve the prediction accuracy of long-term mortality. In addition, the proposed framework...