This paper investigates the ability of the adaptive learning approach to replicate the expectations of professional … simple, yet powerful benchmark models. We find that constant gain models provide a better fit for the expectations of …

This paper investigates the ability of the adaptive learning approach to replicate the expectations of professional … simple, yet powerful benchmark models. We find that constant gain models provide a better fit for the expectations of …

This note evaluates how adaptive learning agents weigh different pieces of information when forming expectations with a …

This paper evaluates how the way agents weight information when forming expectations can affect the econometric … lead to substantial biases to estimates of expectations relevance for inflation, and (ii) that these biases can spill over …

This paper proposes a measure of real-time inflation expectations based on metadata, i.e., data about data, constructed … Search Index (GISI) is assessed relative to 37 other indicators of inflation expectations – 36 survey measures and the TIPS … spread. For decades, the academic literature has focused on three measures of inflation expectations: the Livingston Survey …

frequency and real-time data. I present a collection of 37 different measures of inflation expectations, including many … previously unexploited monthly and real-time measures of inflation expectations. These higher frequency measures tend to … that there are benefits to using higher frequency measures of inflation expectations. Out of sample forecasts confirm the …

I present evidence that higher frequency measures of inflation expectations outperform lower frequency measures of … inflation expectations in tests of accuracy, predictive power, and rationality. For decades, the academic literature has focused … collection of 37 different measures of inflation expectations, including many previously unexploited monthly and real …