Following an extensive reevaluation of existing indicators included in The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for The United States, we propose a comprehensive revision of the composite index. In this paper we present the case for replacing three of the components and making a minor...

Financial indicators such as yield curves and stock prices have been extensively used as leading indicators of economic activity due to their forward looking content. Indeed, the Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the United States, a widely used forecasting tool for business cycle turning points,...

Clusters of cyclical turning points in the coincident indicators help us identify and date Euro Area recessions and recoveries in the past several decades. In the U.S. and some other countries, composite indexes of coincident indicators (CEI) are used to date classical business cycle turning...

Following an extensive reevaluation of existing indicators included in The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for The United States, we propose a comprehensive revision of the composite index. In this paper we present the case for replacing three of the components and making a minor...

One of the main trends in the labor market in recent years is the aging of the workforce, which partly results from older workers delaying retirement. Using the Current Population Survey (CPS) from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), we find that the trend of delaying retirement began as early...

A study of business cycles defined as sequences of expansions and contractions in the level of general economic activity does not require trend estimation and elimination, but a study of growth cycles defined as sequences of high and low growth phases does. Major cyclical slowdowns and booms...

This paper reviews some of China’s high frequency economic indicators and our principal findings on their selection and use. Our aim is to develop a composite index of coincident indicators (CEI) which can be used to obtain timely information on the present state of the China’s economy and...