We introduce cautious expectations to a macroprudential policy model where average growth is traded off against growth-at-risk (GaR). Policymakers with cautious expectations estimate the optimal weight to apply to risk signals, creating biased, historically dependent crisis forecasts. They...

IMF programmes are frequently criticised for lacking focus and being ineffective in helping maintain private credit lines following a debt crisis. We develop a theoretical model to explore the interlinkages between result-based conditionality and creditor collective action problems. The model...

This paper proposes a new method for measuring investor 'risk appetite'. Like other indicators in the literature, it is based on a comparison of risk-neutral probabilities of future returns with the corresponding subjective probabilities. The precise nature of the comparison is novel, however,...

The interplay between financial and monetary stability has received considerable attention in recent times, from policymakers and academics alike. This article reviews the broad themes that have emerged in the recent literature and highlights several key issues that merit attention by...

This article describes a model of financial crisis and explores its implications for public policy. The framework nests the key features of earlier models but is better able to address international architecture questions in a welfare setting. In particular, this framework is used to assess the...

This paper examines whether recent international policy initiatives to facilitate financial rescues in emerging market countries have influenced debtors' incentives to access official sector resources. The paper highlights a country's systemic importance as a key characteristic that drives...

Recent experience with financial crises has led to scepticism about the efficacy of crisis management measures that target short-term debt, such as the voluntary/concerted rollovers of interbank lines. Such measures, it is suggested, heighten financial fragility by encouraging creditors to...

This paper offers an analytical framework with which to assess some recent proposals for strengthening the international financial architecture. A model is developed of sovereign liquidity crises that reflect two sources of financial stress?weak fundamentals and self-fulfilling expectations. The...