We find that income matters more in "red America" than in "blue America." In poor states, rich people are much more likely than poor people to vote for the Republican presidential candidate, but in rich states (such as Connecticut), income has a very low correlation with vote preference. In...

The analysis of time-series cross-sectional (TSCS) data has become increasingly popular in political science. Meanwhile, political scientists are also becoming more interested in the use of multilevel models (MLM). However, little work exists to understand the benefits of multilevel modeling...

Scholars disagree over the extent to which presidential campaigns activate predispositions in voters or create vote preferences that could not be predicted. When campaign related information flows activate predispositions, election results are largely predetermined given balanced resources. They...

Random effects models (that is, regressions with varying intercepts that are modeled with error) are avoided by some social scientists because of potential issues with bias and uncertainty estimates. Particularly, when one or more predictors correlate with the group or unit effects, a key...

A linear regression of y on x can be approximated by a simple difference: the average values of y corresponding to the highest quarter or third of x, minus the average values of y corresponding to the lowest quarter or third of x. A simple theoretical analysis shows this comparison performs...

In this article, we present a forecast of the 2010 midterm House election based on information available in early July 2010. We combine this forecast with a note of caution, explaining why electoral circumstances might lead our forecast to err. Finally, we present guidance regarding how to...

The public is characterized as able forecasters of future economic performance. They engage in rational expectations. Empirical evidence exists to bolster the claim. This article considers the possibility that the public does more than predict economic output. They may engage in a...