A two-sided Weibull is developed to model the conditional financial return distribution, for the purpose of forecasting Value at Risk (VaR) and conditional VaR. A range of conditional return distributions are combined with four volatility specifications to forecast tail risk in four...

An important issue in modelling economic time series is whether key unobserved components representing trends, seasonality and calendar components, are deterministic or evolutive. We address it by applying a recently proposed Bayesian variable selection methodology to an encompassing linear...

A Semiparametric spatial model is used as it allows nonlinear estimation of both mean and variance.<br /><br /> A Bayesian approach is used for inference via a Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling scheme. A distinct advantage of using the Bayesian approach is the incorporation of prior information in the...

This paper provides a methodology for combining forecasts based on several discrete choice models. This is achieved primarily by combining one-step-ahead probability forecast associated with each model. The paper applies well-established scoring rules for qualitative response models in the...

Bayesian semi-parametric estimation has proven effective for quantile estimation in general and specifically in financial Value at Risk forecasting. Expected short-fall is a competing tail risk measure, involving a conditional expectation beyond a quantile, that has recently been...

Recently, Bayesian solutions to the quantile regression problem, via the likeli-hood of a Skewed-Laplace distribution, have been proposed. These approaches are extended and applied to a family of dynamic conditional autoregressive quantile models. Popular Value at Risk models, used for risk...

Using the concept of market-distribution functions, we derive general optimality conditions for discriminatory divisible-good auctions, which are also applicable to Bertrand games and non-linear pricing. We introduce the concept of offer distribution function to analyze randomized offer curves,...

In this paper, we address the problem of convergence to Nash equilibria in games with rewards that are initially unknown and which must be estimated over time from noisy observations. These games arise in many real-world applications, whenever rewards for actions cannot be prespecified and must...

Supply function equilibria are used in the analysis of divisible good auctions with a large number of identical objects to be sold or bought. An important example occurs in wholesale electricity markets. Despite the substantial literature on supply function equilibria the existence of a pure...

Economists often use matched samples, especially when dealing with earnings data where a number of missing observations need to be imputed. In this paper, we demonstrate that the ordinary least squares estimator of the linear regression model using matched samples is inconsistent and has a...