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Operational risk management remains a major concern for financial institutions. Indeed, institutions are bound to manage their own funds to hedge this risk. In this paper, we propose an approach to allocate one's own funds based on a combination of historical data and expert opinion using the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012168944
Bayesian forecasting is a natural product of a Bayesian approach to inference. The Bayesian approach in general requires explicit formulation of a model, and conditioning on known quantities, in order to draw inferences about unknown ones. In Bayesian forecasting, one simply takes a subset of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014023705
In the context of an autoregressive panel data model with fixed effect, we examine the relationship between consistent parameter estimation and consistent model selection. Consistency in parameter estimation is achieved by using the tansformation of the fixed effect proposed by Lancaster (2002)....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003817214
This paper focuses on simulation-based inference for the time-deformation models directed by a duration process. In …-Hastings (MH) method, where the proposal distributions are sampled through a slice sampler. Simulation studies conducted in this …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013084223
In this paper we discuss several aspects of simulation based Bayesian econometric inference. We start at an elementary … level on basic concepts of Bayesian analysis; evaluating integrals by simulation methods is a crucial ingredient in Bayesian … inference. Next, the most popular and well-known simulation techniques are discussed, the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012729891
computationally difficult to implement, and simulation studies show the test to have bad small-sample properties. We extend Gencay …, simulation results show that our test has quicker convergence and hence better small-sample properties …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013056417
. A simulation-based Bayesian procedure is introduced for predicting stable stock price ratios, defined in a cointegration …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013056713
Over the last decade, agent-based models in economics have reached a state of maturity that brought the tasks of statistical inference and goodness-of-fit of such models on the agenda of the research community. While most available papers have pursued a frequentist approach adopting either...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012164264
the draws used for simulation as a latent variable to be augmented in the Bayesian framework; see Flury and Shephard (2011 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011757715
Large scale, computationally expensive simulation models pose a particular challenge when it comes to estimating their … parameters from empirical data. Most simulation models do not possess closed form expressions for their likelihood function …, requiring the use of simulation-based inference, such as simulated method of moments, indirect inference or approximate Bayesian …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013439970