This is an analytical study of the effect of level-shift and temporary-change components, when present but neglected, on the trace test for cointegration. The contribution is threefold. First, we discuss in a multivariate framework, and jointly, effects that in the previous literature have been...

The aim of the paper is to go beyond the detection of outliers in multivariate time series, and to find regularities in the effect of special events on the series. The tool is a factor model in which the direction of every column of the loading matrix is identified, in contrast with Gaussian...

Quasi-maximum-likelihood (QML) estimation of a model combining cointegration in the conditional mean and rare large shocks (outliers) with a factor structure in the innovations is studied. The goal is not only to robustify inference on the conditional-mean parameters, but also to find...