We construct a small-open-economy, New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium model with real-financial linkages to analyze the effects of financial shocks and macroprudential policies on the Canadian economy. Our model has four key features. First, it allows for non-trivial...

We confirm the negative relationship between household debt and future GDP growth documented in Mian, Sufi, and Verner (2017) for a wider set of countries over the period 1950-2016. Three mutually reinforcing mechanisms help explain this relationship. First, debt overhang impairs household...

Traditional economic models have had difficulty explaining the non-monotonic real effects of credit booms and, in particular, why they have predictable negative after-effects for up to a decade. We provide a systematic transmission mechanism by focusing on the flows of resources between...

Public debt management has gained prominence over the last years. The pursuit of an adequate public debt composition is critical to the objective of minimizing long term financing costs, while ensuring the maintenance of prudent risk levels. In this sense, we devise a benchmark for the public...

We show that using data which are properly available in real time when assessing the sensitivity of asset prices to economic news leads to different empirical findings than when data availability and timing issues are ignored. We do this by focusing on a particular example, namely Chen, Roll and...

We explore the macro-financial consequences of the disruption of a supply chain in an agent based framework characterized by two networks, a credit network connecting banks and firms and a production network connecting upstream and down-stream firms. We consider two scenarios. In the first one,...

This paper constructs a financial conditions index for Poland to explore the link between financial conditions and real economic activity. The index in constructed by applying two complementary approaches — factor analysis and vector auto-regression approach. We evaluate the index's...

Macro-economists and political officers need rigorous, albeit realistic, quantitative models to forecast the future paths and dynamics of some variables of interest while being able to evaluate the effects of alternative scenarios. At the heart of all these models lies a standard macroeconomic...

I present simple estimators for the expected returns of stocks and bonds and compare them to the standard historical, or sample mean, estimator. I show that as a result of a capital gains constraint that stocks and bonds must satisfy, the historical estimator can be acutely biased. I further...

An economic tracking portfolio is a portfolio of assets with returns that track an economic variable. Monthly returns on stocks and bonds are useful in forecasting post-war U.S. output, consumption, labor income, inflation, stock returns, bond returns, and Treasury bill returns. These...