This paper develops and compares two theories of strategic behavior of professional forecasters. The first theory posits that forecasters compete in a forecasting contest with pre-specified rules. In equilibrium of a winner-take-all contest, forecasts are excessively differentiated. According to...

We argue for incorporating the financial economics of market microstructure into the financial econometrics of asset return volatility estimation. In particular, we use market microstructure theory to derive the cross-correlation function between latent returns and market microstructure noise,...

Using machine learning methods, we develop a new measure of aggregate analyst sentiment. We first train analyst-specific neural network (NN) models that capture each analyst's common biases across firms. Using NN model outputs, we decompose the forecast errors of individual analysts into...

A model of over-the-counter markets is proposed. Some asset buyers are informed in that they can identify high-quality assets. Heterogeneous sellers with private information choose what type of buyers they want to trade with. When the measure of informed buyers is low, there exists a unique...

This paper develops and compares two theories of strategic behaviour of professional forecasters. The first theory posits that forecasters compete in a forecasting contest with pre-specified rules. In equilibrium of a winner-take-all contest, forecasts are excessively differentiated. According...

We study how language affects private debt renegotiation. We predict that stronger future time reference (FTR) languages alter the importance of renegotiation risk by lowering the perceived value of loan renegotiation. We test this hypothesis on a sample of 6.500 loans issued to European firms...

We provide new evidence on the effects of social media in the context of a financial scandal using a sample of banks that were accused of manipulating the London Interbank Offered Rate. We find that increased banks' Twitter activity when the scandal surfaced has a positive moderating effect on...

This paper measures how both geographical and cultural proximity of bank branches affect household credit choice and pricing. We examine both types of proximity jointly to separately identify the importance of soft information versus alternative mechanisms. Using a detailed household-level...

Professional experts offer advice with the objective of appearing well informed. Their ability is evaluated on the basis of the advice given and the realized state of the world. We model this situation as a reputational cheap-talk game with continuous signal, state, and ability type spaces....

We argue for incorporating the financial economics of market microstructure into the financial econometrics of asset return volatility estimation. In particular, we use market microstructure theory to derive the cross-correlation function between latent returns and market microstructure noise,...