The eurozone is in recession and will show negative growth in 2012, notes Stefano Micossi in this new CEPS Policy Brief. Hopes that fiscal consolidation could spur growth by improving household and business confidence are not materialising, because in reality, domestic demand has been hit too...

The eurozone countries are currently sitting on an aggregate exposure to Greece exceeding €300 billion. If the country were to exit the eurozone, it would certainly not be able to service its debt in the short run when the exchange rate overshoots. Over the longer run, however, the exchange...

Excessive leverage and risk-taking by large international banks were the main causes of the 2008-09 financial crisis and the ensuing sharp drop in economic activity and employment. World leaders and central bankers promised that it would not happen again and, to this end, undertook to overhaul...

As unemployment climbs to new heights, Europe’s policy-makers are desperately casting about for the few instruments with which the EU can claim to foster growth. After a thorough examination of the facts on the ground, however, this paper finds that the North and the South of the euro area are...

Lax financial conditions can foster credit booms. The global credit boom of the last decade led to large capital flows across the world, including large movements of resources from the Northern countries of the euro area towards the Southern part. Since the start of the crisis and more markedly...

Fresh prospects are opening for asset managers as Europe seeks to reduce its historical reliance on banking and to promote capital markets. But following the financial crisis, the industry faces a dual challenge: regaining investors’ trust and coping with the post-crisis regulatory reform....

This paper finds evidence that a significant part of the surge in the spreads of the PIGS countries (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain) in the eurozone during 2010-11 was disconnected from underlying increases in the debt-to-GDP ratios, and was the result of negative market sentiments that...

The sentiment that the euro is now in real danger is based in large part on the widespread conviction that interest rates of 6-7% are simply unsustainable for both Italy and Spain., After taking a closer look at the fundamentals, however, Daniel Gros concludes in this new Policy Brief that both...

The EMS crisis of the 1990s illustrated the importance of a lack of confidence in price or exchange rate stability, whereas the present crisis illustrates the importance of a lack of confidence in fiscal sustainability. Theoretically the difference between the two should be minor since, in terms...

The structure of the world economy has been changing quickly during the last decade. The emerging global economy is much more fragmented than in the past and characterised by different global actors, each one with specific features and roles. In this setting, both Brazil and the European Union...