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Early-warning tools to forecast general government deficit in the euro area: the role of intra-annual fiscal indicators

Pérez, Javier J. - 2005

In this paper I evaluate the usefulness of a set of fiscal indicators as early-warning-signal tools for annual General Government Net Lending developments for some EMU countries (Belgium, Germany, Spain, France, Italy, The Netherlands, Ireland, Austria, Finland) and an EMU aggregate. The...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604543

Structural balances and revenue windfalls: the role of asset prices revisited

Morris, Richard; Schuknecht, Ludger - 2007

In this paper we revisit one of the “missing links” between budget balances and the economic cycle, namely the impact of asset prices on fiscal revenues. We estimate revenue elasticities with respect to equity and real estate price indices for 16 OECD countries, as well as for a synthetic...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604783

Fiscal forecasting: lessons from the literature and challenges

Leal, Teresa; Pérez, Javier J.; Tujula, Mika; Vidal, … - 2007

While fiscal forecasting and monitoring has its roots in the accountability of governments for the use of public funds in democracies, the Stability and Growth Pact has significantly increased interest in budgetary forecasts in Europe, where they play a key role in the EU multilateral budgetary...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604889

The usefulness of infra-annual government cash budgetary data for fiscal forecasting in the euro area

Onorante, Luca; Pedregal, Diego J.; Pérez, Javier J.; … - 2008

Short-term fiscal indicators based on public accounts data are often used by European policy makers. They represent one of the main sources of publicly available intra-annual fiscal information. Nevertheless, these indicators have received limited attention from the academic literature analysing...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604947

Should quarterly government finance statistics be used for fiscal surveillane in Europe?

Pedregal, Diego J.; Pérez, Javier J. - 2008

We use a newly available dataset of euro area quarterly national accounts fiscal data and construct multi-variate, state-space mixed-frequencies models for the government deficit, revenue and expenditure in order to assess its information content and its potential use for fiscal forecasting and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604983

A quarterly fiscal database for the euro area based on intra-annual fiscal information

Paredes, Joan; Pedregal, Diego J.; Pérez, Javier J. - 2009

The analysis of the macroeconomic impact of fiscal policies in the euro area has been traditionally limited by the absence of quarterly fiscal data. To overcome this problem, we provide two new databases in this paper. Firstly, we construct a quarterly database of euro area fiscal variables for...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605178

Is there a signalling role for public wages? Evidence for the euro area based on macro data

Pérez, Javier J.; Sánchez, Jesús - 2010

Do public sector wages exert pressures on private sector wages, or has the private sector a leadership role in wage setting? This paper tries to isolate the pure signalling effect that one sector might exert on the other by controlling for other determinants of wages (prices, productivity,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605194

Market power and fiscal policy in OECD countries

Afonso, António; Costa, Luís F. - 2010

We compute average mark-ups as a measure of market power throughout time and study their interaction with fiscal policy and macroeconomic variables in a VAR framework. From impulse-response functions the results, with annual data for a set of 14 OECD countries covering the period 1970-2007, show...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605219

Major public debt reductions: Lessons from the past, lessons for the future

Nickel, Christiane; Rother, Philipp; Zimmermann, Lilli - 2010

The financial crisis of 2008/2009 has left European economies with a sizeable public debt stock bringing back the … determining major public debt reductions. On average, the total debt reduction per country amounted to almost 37 percentage points … of GDP. We estimate several specifications of a logistic probability model. Our findings suggest that, first, major debt …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605287

Optimal level of government debt - matching wealth inequality and the fiscal sector

Vogel, Edgar - 2014

effects of alternative government debt levels and adjustment policies on macroeconomic aggregates and welfare. We find that … the government should hold negative debt. Due to the high degree of wealth and income dispersion ex ante lifetime utility … increases with increasing wages (falling interest rates) by around 6% of lifetime consumption at optimal debt levels. The …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605710