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This paper studies the correlation between output growth and lagged stock returns in a panel of emerging market economies and advanced economies. It finds that the correlation is as strong in emerging market economies as in advanced economies. Asset prices therefore contain valuable information...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005769095
This paper examines the changing nature of growth spillovers between developed economies, the North, and developing countries, the South, driven by the process of globalization?the phenomenon of rising international trade and financial flows. We use a comprehensive database of macroeconomic and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005769105
Using a panel of 16 emerging markets, the paper finds a small but statistically significant effect of stock market developments on private consumption spending. In the short run, a 10 percent decline in the annual real stock market return is associated with a reduction in real private...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005769129
This paper analyzes various indicators of the U.S. international investment position from a portfolio perspective. The 1990s saw a decline in home bias, which, coupled with rapid financial deepening, led to a large increase in gross international investment holdings. The home bias of non-U.S....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005769170
A structural vector autoregression model is developed to analyze the dynamics of bond spreads among a sample of mature and developing countries during periods of financial stress in the last decade. The model identifies and quantifies the contribution on bond spreads from global market...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005769174
Advocates for internal model-based capital regulation argue that this approach will reduce costs and remove distortions that are created by rules-based capital regulations. These claims are examined using a Merton-style model of deposit insurance. Analysis shows that internal model-based capital...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005769175
The effects of the IMF's data standards initiatives on sovereign borrowing costs in private capital markets are investigated for 26 emerging market and developing countries. Stable and significant panel econometric estimates indicate that subscription to the Special Data Dissemination Standard...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005769280
An endogenous growth model with financial intermediation demonstrates how deposit insurance and prudential regulatory forbearance lead to banking crises and growth declines. The model assumptions are based on features of the Japanese financial system and regulation. The model demonstrates how...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005769310
If interest rates (country spreads) rise, debt can rapidly be subject to a snowball effect, which becomes self-fulfilling with regard to the fundamentals themselves. This is a market imperfection, because we cannot be confident that the unaided market will choose the "good" over the "bad"...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005769315
The forward-looking framework expounded in this paper links a qualitative evaluation of system-wide vulnerability (covering macro, sectoral, institutional, and systemic liquidity issues) with a quantitative assessment of the financial condition of significant financial institutions. Based on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005771354