We propose a theory of mergers that combines managerial merger motives and a regime shift that may lead to some value- increasing merger opportunities. Anticipation of the regime shift can lead to mergers, either for defensive or positioning reasons. Defensive mergers occur when managers acquire...

We study the behavior of output, employment, consumption, and investment in Germany during the Great Depression of 1928-37. In this time period, real wages were countercyclical, and productivity and fiscal policy were procyclical. We use the neoclassical growth model to investigate how much...

This paper shows that one of the defining features of Walrasian equilibrium---law of one price---characterizes equilibrium in a non-Walrasian environment of (1) random trade matching without double coincidence of wants, and (2) strategic, price-setting conduct. Money is modeled as perfectly...

Analyzing disaggregate data on inventories and sales from the U.S. manufacturing and trade sector between 1960 and 1997 yields four main findings. First, I find that IS ratios are somewhat lower after 1984: 1 among durable goods manufacturers and durable goods retailers outside the motor vehicle...

Implied probability density functions (PDFs) estimated from cross-sections of observed options prices are gaining increasing attention amongst academics and practitioners. However, to date little attention has been paid to the robustness of these estimates or to the confidence users can place in...

In November 1991, federal lawmakers threatened to place a binding cap on credit card interest rates. I find that credit card rates declined following the regulatory threat, more so for larger and more politically visible credit card issuers. A set of stock market event studies reveals that...

Why would governments agree to restrict their own discretion in setting domestic policies as part of a trade agreement? This paper examines the welfare consequences of the GATT's Agreement on Subsidies and Countervailing Measures (SCM). If countries which join a trade agreement are given free...

We use a new panel dataset of credit card accounts to analyze how consumers responded to the 2001 federal income tax rebates. We estimate the monthly response of credit card payments, spending, and debt, exploiting the unique, randomized timing of the rebate disbursement. We find that on average...

Much of the concern about immigration adversely affecting crime derives from the fact that immigrants tend to have characteristics in common with native born populations that are disproportionately incarcerated. This perception of a link between immigration and crime led to legislation in the...