BankCaR is a credit risk model that forecasts the distribution of a commercial bank's charge-offs. The distribution depends only on systematic factors; BankCaR takes each bank and projects its expected charge-off across a distribution of good years and bad years. Since most bank failures occur...

This paper tests how competition in local U.S. banking markets affects the market structure of non- financial sectors. Theory offers competing hypotheses about how competition ought to influence firm entry and access to bank credit by mature firms. Using data on U.S. local markets for banking...

Problems with measurement error have led many researchers to criticize panel data studies of intertemporal labor supply. In this study I address the measurement error problems explicitly. I estimate the properties of measurement error in the Panel Study of Income Dynamics Validation Study. I...

We consider a sequence of random length M of independent absolutely continuous observations Xi, 1 = i = M, where M is geometric, X1 has cdf G, and Xi, i = 2, have cdf F. Let N be the number of upper records and Rn, n = 1, be the nth record value. We show that N is free of F if and only if G(x) =...

Data from the NLSY show that more than a quarter of all younger men experience some period of self- employment. Many of them return to wage work. This paper analyzes a simple model of job search and self- employment where self- employment provides an alternative source of income for unemployed...

We use the Islamic holy month of Ramadan as a natural experiment for evaluating the short and long-term effects of fasting during pregnancy. Using Michigan natality data we show that in utero exposure to Ramadan among Arab births results in lower birthweight and reduced gestation length....

In this paper we develop an empirical model of entrepreneurs' business continuation decisions, and we estimate its parameters using a new panel of monthly alcohol tax returns from bars in the state of Texas. In our data, entrepreneurial failure is frequent and predictable. In the first year of...

We analyze how price discovery in the inter- dealer market for U.S. Treasury securities differs between stressful times and normal periods. Using tick-by-tick data on inter-dealer transactions in the on-the- run two-year, five-year and 10-year Treasury notes, we find that the impact of trades on...

This paper illustrates a particular limited information strategy for assessing the empirical plausibility of alternative quantitative general equilibrium business cycle models. The basic strategy is to test whether a model economy can account for the response of actual economy to an exogenous...

Because financial transactions are important for wealth accumulation, and rely on trust and confidence in institutions, the financial market behavior of immigrants can provide important insights into the assimilation process. Compared to the native-born, immigrants are less likely to own savings...