This paper explores the implications of different strategies for financing the fiscal cost of twin crises for inflation and depreciation rates. We use a first-generation type model of speculative attacks which has four key features: (i) the crisis is triggered by prospective deficits, (ii) there...

Remarks at the Westchester County Bankers Association, Tarrytown, New York.

The past two and a half years have been challenging ones for the Federal Reserve. It is time now to look back--to see what we have learned--and to look forward to reshaping the policy environment, with an eye toward lessening the odds of future financial crises.

This paper develops a structural credit risk model of a bank that issues deposits, shareholders' equity, and fixed or floating coupon bonds in the form of contingent capital or subordinated debt. The return on the bank's assets follows a jump-diffusion process, and default-free interest rates...

Testimony before the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission, Washington, D.C.

The financial crisis and recession that began in 2007 brought a sharp increase in the number of bank failures in the United States. This article investigates characteristics of banks that failed and regional patterns in bank failure rates during 2007-10. The article compares the recent...