analytically and using a real-life empirical example of yield spread as a predictor of recessions. We show that false alarm rate in … quantify the extent to which ROC could be exaggerating the true predictive value of the yield curve in predicting recessions. …

recessions allows for a more general discussion on the impact of adjustment frictions in the dual labor market and the effects …

between the Divisia and the simple sum aggregate has a significant predictive content for recessions in euro area countries. …

Recessions lead to short-term job loss, lower levels of happiness and decreasing income levels. There is growing … disturbing long-run effect of recessions: young people who leave school in the midst of recessions are significantly more likely …

which are typically followed by deeper recessions and slower recoveries. Housing finance has come to play a central role in …

literature focuses on recessions at the aggregate level. We provide evidence on the behavior of a large set of developed and … external financial dependence of industries. We distinguish financial from normal recessions, and look at the patterns of the … leads to a rich set of results grouped in 14 stylized facts. Most importantly, we found that recessions tend to be more …

different consequences for the costs of recessions. Using U.S. employer-employee data, we find that employment growth at low … that while during recessions separations fall in both high-paying and low-paying firms, the decline is stronger among low …

This paper examines trends in household consumption and saving behaviour in each of the last three recessions in the UK … expenditure than was seen in previous recessions, and the distributional pattern across individuals differs. The young have cut …

-cycle framework how individuals respond to recessions. Our focus is on the sharp increase in savings rates that have been observed in … the current and recent recessions. We show empirically that these saving spikes were short-lived and common to all working … age groups. We then study life-cycle models in which recessions involve one or more of: (i) an aggregate permanent …