Presented by Charles I. Plosser, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, University of California, Santa Barbara Economic Forecast Project 2012, May 3, 2012

Presented by Charles I. Plosser, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, CFA Society of San Diego, May 1, 2012

Remarks at the Barclays 16th Annual Global Inflation-Linked Conference, New York City.

Commodity futures prices are frequently criticized as being uninformative for forecasting purposes because (1) they seem to do no better than a random walk or an extrapolation of recent trends and (2) futures prices for commodities often trace out a relatively flat trajectory even though global...

Remarks by President Dudley at the Quarterly Regional Economic Press Briefing, New York City.

Purpose – The objective of this paper is to develop a model that can predict financial distress amongst public listed companies in Malaysia using the logistic regression analysis. Design/methodology/approach – The logistic regression analysis used in this paper is geared towards developing a...

This paper investigates whether oil prices have a reliable and stable out-of-sample relationship with the Canadian/U.S. dollar nominal exchange rate. Despite state-of-the-art methodologies, the authors find little systematic relation between oil prices and the exchange rate at the monthly and...

The driving force of U.S. economic growth is expected to rotate from the fiscal stimulus and inventory rebuilding in 2009 to private demand in 2010, with consumption and particularly investment expected to be important contributors to growth. The strength of U.S. investment will hence be a...

This paper is concerned with time series forecasting in the presence of a large number of predictors. The results are of interest, for instance, in macroeconomic and financial forecasting where often many potential predictor variables are available. Most of the current forecast methods with many...

Forecasting with many predictors is of interest, for instance, in macroeconomics and finance. This paper compares two methods for dealing with many predictors, that is, principal component regression (PCR) and principal covariate regression (PCovR). The forecast performance of these methods is...