Using data for EU-27 NUTS 2 regions and major cities, we evaluate empirically the role of urban growth spillovers as a determinant of income dynamics at the regional level. We go beyond the empirically well documented static relationship between national income and productivity in urban...

In this contribution, we tackle explicitly the issue of model uncertainty in the framework of binary variable models of currency crises. Using Bayesian model averaging techniques, we assess the robustness of the explanatory variables proposed in the recent literature for both static and dynamic...

In this paper we analyze the impact of three U.S. structural shocks on, and its transmission 0to, the world economy. For that purpose we use a Bayesian version of the global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model coupled with a prior specification that explicitly treats uncertainty regarding...

This paper puts forward a Bayesian version of the global vector autoregressive model (B-GVAR) that accommodates international linkages across countries in a system of vector autoregressions. We compare the predictive performance of B-GVAR models for the one- and four-quarter ahead forecast...

We analyze the effects of euro area monetary policy on three Central and Eastern European non-euro area EU countries: the Czech Republic, Poland and Hungary. We employ an open economy version of the factor-augmented vector autoregression model (FAVAR) to estimate the cross-border effects of a...

In this paper we examine the spillovers of a shock to real output in the euro area to Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE) and its subregions Central Europe, Southeastern Europe, Russia, and the other members of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). To this effect, we apply a...

This paper puts forward a global macro model comprising 43 countries and covering the period from Q1 1995 to Q4 2011. Our regional focus is on countries in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE) and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). Applying a global VAR (GVAR) model, we...

In this paper we put forward a Bayesian Model Averaging method dealing with model uncertainty in the presence of potential spatial autocorrelation. The method uses spatial filtering in order to account for different types of spatial links. We contribute to existing methods that handle spatial...

We examine the international effects of adverse loan supply and aggregate demand shocks originating in the euro area and the U.S.A. For that purpose, we use a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model and isolate disturbances stemming from loan supply from those of four other macroeconomic...