In this paper, we analyze the economic value of predicting stock index returns as well as volatility. On the basis of simple linear models, estimated recursively, we produce genuine out-of-sample forecasts for the return on the S&P 500 index and its volatility. Using monthly data from 1954 to...

We decompose the conditional expected mutual fund return in five parts. Two parts, selectivity and expert market timing, can be attributed to manager skill, and three to variation in market exposure that can be achieved by private investors as well. The dynamic model that we use to estimate the...

Over the last decade we have witnessed the rise and fall of the so-called new economy stocks. One central question is to what extent these new firms differ from traditional firms. Empirical evidence suggests that stock returns are not normally distributed. In this article we investigate whether...

We present an analysis of the performance of the DAX, German's major stock market index, over the last two years. Our analysis is broader than conventional benchmark approaches because we study the properties of all feasible portfolios, i.e. portfolios composed given the same investment...

When delegating an investment decisions to a professional manager, investors often anchor their mandate to a specific benchmark. The manager’s exposure to risk is controlled by means of a tracking error volatility constraint. It depends on market conditions whether this constraint is easily...

This paper examines the ability of balanced pension plan managers to successfully time the equity and bond market and select the appropriate assets within these markets. In order to evaluate both market timing abilities in these balanced pension plans, we extend the traditional equity market...

In this paper, we analyze how large institutions differ from other investors and the implications that these differences have for stock returns, market liquidity, and corporate governance. We find that large institutional investors -- a category including all managers with greater than $100...

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to study performance and market timing ability of equity real estate investment trusts (REITs). Design/methodology/approach - The authors use classical regression-based framework and their multi-index, multifactor, and conditional extensions to jointly...

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to study performance and market timing ability of equity real estate investment trusts (REITs). Design/methodology/approach – The authors use classical regression‐based framework and their multi‐index, multifactor, and conditional extensions to...

We show that results in the recent strand of the literature that tries to explain stock returns by weather induced mood shifts of investors might be data-driven inference. More specifically, we consider two recent studies (Kamstra, Kramer and Levi, 2003a and Cao and Wei, 2004) that claim that a...