This paper explores the empirical determinants of external crises on a world panel dataset of 62 countries over the fifty-year period 1970-2019 and estimates their risk trade-offs with the aim of informing macrofinancial prudential policies. The determinants include countries' external balance...

This paper assesses the vulnerability of Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) economies to external crises. It shows that while the average LAC economy has made significant strides to reduce vulnerability to crises to its historical minimum, there is still considerable room for improvement,...

This paper assesses the vulnerability of Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) economies to external crises. It shows that while the average LAC economy has made significant strides to reduce vulnerability to crises to its historical minimum, there is still considerable room for improvement,...

Hungary’s external balance indicators improved a great deal in 2007. Simultaneously, however, the external debt ratio also rose which, in an international climate of uncertainty stemming from the sub-prime crisis, drew investors’ attention to the structure of the country’s external...

This paper examines how UK banks channel capital inflows to the individual sectors of the domestic economy and to overseas residents. Information on the source country of foreign capital deposited with UK banks allows us to construct a novel Bartik instrument for capital inflows. Our results...

This paper examines how UK banks channel capital inflows to the individual sectors of the domestic economy and to overseas residents. Information on the source country of foreign capital deposited with UK banks allows us to construct a novel Bartik instrument for capital inflows. Our results...

According to the balance of payments statistics, Spain's net lending stood at 2.3% as a percentage of GDP in 2019, slightly down on the prior year, against a backdrop of continued, albeit slowing, economic growth. Developments in net lending are explained by the reduction in the capital account...

This paper examines how UK banks channel capital inflows to the individual sectors of the domestic economy and to overseas residents. Information on the source country of foreign capital deposited with UK banks allows us to construct a novel Bartik instrument for capital inflows. Our results...

In 2020, the Spanish economy recorded net lending of 1.1% of GDP, significantly below the previous year’s level of 2.5%. This decline essentially reflects the impact of the health crisis on travel credits, which contracted sharply, owing to the restrictions on international mobility and on...

I propose a dynamic general equilibrium model in which strategic interactions between banks and depositors may lead to endogenous bank fragility and slow recovery from crises. When banks' investment decisions are not contractible, depositors form expectations about bank risk-taking and demand a...