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The empirical performance of macroeconomic exchange rate models is more than disappointing. This dismal result is also reflected in the forecasting capabilities of professional analysts: all in all, analysts are not in a position to beat naïve random walk forecasts. The root for this deficient...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009226070
This paper examines the monetary model of exchange rate determination for the US dollar exchange rates against the currencies of Canada, Japan, and the United Kingdom. In this paper, we utilize the cointegration technique for testing long-run relationship, and vector error correction model for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009392017
We present results from an extensive study on the benefits of rolling window and model averaging. Building on the recent work on rolling window averaging by Pesaran et al (2010, 2009) and on exchange rate forecasting by Molodtsova and Papell (2009), we explore whether rolling window averaging...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008917753
We propose a specification of the euro/dollar real exchange rate based on the productivity differential, the governments spending differential and the real interest rate differential. This model suitably describes the euro/dollar path over the last two decades and presents satisfactory...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008578439
This paper develops vector autoregressive and Bayesian vector autoregressive models to forecast the Indian Re/US dollar exchange rate which is governed by a managed floating exchange rate regime. It considers extensions of the monetary model that include the forward premium, capital inflows,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008861886
This paper presents a generalized autoregressive distributed lag (GADL) model for conducting regression estimations that involve mixed-frequency data. As an example, we show that daily asset market information - currency and equity mar- ket movements - can produce forecasts of quarterly...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008871272
This study presents extensive results on the benefits of rolling window and model averaging. Building on the recent work on rolling window averaging by Pesaran et al (2010, 2009) and on exchange rate forecasting by Molodtsova and Papell (2009), we explore whether rolling window averaging can be...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008837785
The article aims at introducing new methodology for recognizing suitable indicators to monitor the potential risk of extensive pressure on the exchange rate (early warning indicators) and for identifying vulnerabilities in an economy to this pressure reflected by simultaneous negative...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008754968
This paper analyses the out-of-sample forecasting performance of non-linear vs. linear models for the South African Rand against the United States dollar and the British Pound, in real terms. We compare the forecasting performance of point, interval and density forecasts for non-linear Band- TAR...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010636769
This paper analyses the out-of-sample forecasting performance of non-linear vs. linear models for the South African rand against the United States dollar and the British pound, in real terms. We compare the forecasting performance of point, interval and density forecasts for non-linear Band-TAR...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010643614