The expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates implies that the spread between short and long bond yields should forecast next period's change in the long yield. Regression based tests have systematically rejected the expectations hypothesis, with estimated coefficients far...

A simple folk theorem of repeated games states that Pareto-efficient outcomes can be achieved in a perfect equilibrium where deviations are punished by a reversion to Nash equilibrium of the associated stage game (Nash threats equilibrium), provided that players are sufficiently patient. In a...

Existing models of self-fulfilling crises fail to explain both the onset and the abruptness of recent currency attacks. In this apper we follow the suggestion by Myerson (1998) that in games with a very large number of players 'a more realistic model should admit some uncertainty about the...

This paper investigates the agenda formation problem by means of two-player two-cake sequential bargaining models. Players differ not only in their time preferences but also for their cake valuations; moreover they face a risk of breakdown in the negotiation process. The main model is...

That the Keynesian Revolution in the 1930s marked a water-shed in economics dividing the Young Turks from the Old Guard is too well known to require discussion. But that World War II and the immediate post-war years marked a similar and possibly greater break in the 'paradigm' of professional...

Political parties in Northern Ireland recently used a divisor method of apportionment to choose, in sequence, ten cabinet ministries. If the parties have complete information about each others' preferences, we show that it may not be rational for them to act sincerely by choosing their...

The Analysis of the determinants of union membership has typically met difficulties with the free-rider problem that union membership is not individually-rational. We assume that workers differ in their reservation wages and hence in their choice of contracts, preventing free-riding on the...

This paper investigates how unemployment persistence affects the various proposals advanced as solutions to the problem of inflation bias (namely delegation, contracts and reputation). First, the contract solution is extended to cover the dynamic case. However, as such contracts are not used in...

This paper demonstrates that when a rationing equilibrium occurs in credit markets due to adverse selection effects of the interest rate, it is necessarily a multiple contracts (i.e. multiple interest rates) equilibrium with rationing at one contract. Some consequent arguments for a welfare...