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The estimation of the profit and loss distribution of a loan portfolio requires the modelling of the portfolio’s multivariate distribution. This describes the joint likelihood of changes in the credit-risk quality of the loans that make up the portfolio. A significant problem for portfolio...

This paper proposes new performance decomposition measures that allow one to analyse the sources of returns on the international equity holdings of a large cross-section of UK pension funds. Our results suggest that the pension funds earned negative returns both from international market timing...

Bid evaluation is the process of selecting a contractor from a number of bidders. The decision analysis models currently in use at the Portuguese Electric Transmission Company (REN) to evaluate bids were developed through a decision conferencing process supported by the MACBETH multicriteria...

This is the first of three prospective papers examining how well forecasters can predict the future time path of short-term interest rates. Most prior work has been done using US data; in this exercise we use forecasts made for New Zealand (NZ) by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), and those...

This paper solves for a firm's optimal cash holding policy within a continuous time, contingent claims framework that has been extended to incorporate most of the significant contracting frictions that have been identified in the corporate finance literature. Under the optimal policy the firm...

Recent debate on the reform of the international financial architecture has highlighted the potentially important role of the official sector in crisis management. We examine how such public intervention in sovereign debt crises affects efficiency, ex ante and ex post. Our results shed light on...

The regulation of bank capital in the form of capital adequacy requirements is itself inherently procyclical; it bites in downturns, but fails to restrain in booms. The more risk-sensitive the regulation, the greater the scope for pro-cyclicality to become a problem, particularly in view of the...

This paper tries to provide a simple explanation for the empirical finding, documented here and also by Hau, Killeen and Moore (2002), that spreads in the spot USD/EUR market are substantially higher than those in the preceding DEM/USD foreign exchange market. The paper argues that it is...

We present a model of succession in a firm controlled and managed by its founder. The founder decides between hiring a professional manager or leaving management to his heir, as well as on how much, if any, of the shares to float on the stock exchange. We assume that a professional is a better...