Ferrara, Laurent; Darné, Olivier; Adanero-Donderis, Marie - In: Économie et Prévision 189 (2009) 3, pp. 95-114
[eng] We describe a new coincident probabilistic cyclical indicator developed by the Banque de France in order to detect, on a monthly basis, the turning points in the French economy’s acceleration cycle. The indicator is based on the methodology of Markov-switching models and uses the...