This paper develops an early warning system for sovereign debt crises, broadly defined as episodes of outright default …, failure of a country to be current on external obligations and substantial access to IMF resources. It estimates a multinomial …

We develop an early-warning model of sovereign debt crises. A country is defined to be in a debt crisis if it is … classified as being in default by Standard amp; Poor's, or if it has access to nonconcessional IMF financing in excess of 100 … solvency and liquidity factors that predict a debt-crisis episode one year in advance. The logit model predicts 74 percent of …

agreements (over $ 40 billion) with the IMF. Turkey's near meltdown economy, a casualty of repeated speculative attacks on … flows used by the financial authorities to service the debt obligations, but Turkey's external barrowing have become … substantially limited in recent years. With massive foreign debt stock (about $400 billion which is over 50% of its 2018 GDP …

In recent years debt in Colorado has increased at an unsustainable rate. A debt brake is simulated for the Colorado … economy. When the debt brake is triggered the spending cap imposed by the Tabor Amendment is reduced, with surplus revenue … earmarked for debt reduction. The simulation analysis reveals that with the debt brake in place, over two decades debt in …

The sovereign debt crisis in the euro area has increased the interest in early warning indicators, with the aim to …