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Oil prices and trade balance: A wavelet based analysis for India

Tiwari, Aviral Kumar; Olayeni, Olaolu Richard - In: Economics Bulletin 33 (2013) 3, pp. 2270-2286

The study examinations lead-lag relationship between real oil price (ROP) and real trade balance (RTB) for India using … of coherency and corresponding year-scales, real oil price was leading over India's trade balance indicating that an … increase in the oil price will increase India's trade balance. These results corroborate the findings in Le and Chang (2013 …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010691438

Oil prices and trade balance: a frequency domain analysis for India

Arouri, Mohamed; Tiwari, Aviral Kumar; Teulon, Frédéric - Institut de Préparation à l'Administration et à la … - 2014

We study lead-lag relationships between oil price and trade balance for India by using monthly data covering the period …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010754766

The Mean Squared Prediction Error Paradox: A summary

Pincheira, Pablo; Hardy, Nicolas - 2020

This is a summary of the paper entitled : “The Mean Squared Prediction Error Paradox”. In that paper, we show that traditional comparisons of Mean Squared Prediction Error (MSPE) between two competing forecasts may be highly controversial. This is so because when some specific conditions of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015229363

Summary of the Paper Entitled: Forecasting Fuel Prices with the Chilean Exchange Rate

Pincheira, Pablo; Jarsun, Nabil - 2020

This draft is a summary of the paper entitled: Forecasting Fuel Prices with the Chilean Exchange Rate. In that paper we show that the Chilean exchange rate has the ability to predict the returns of oil prices and of three additional oil-related products: gasoline, propane and heating oil. The...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015229382

Determination of Copper Price Expectations in the International Market: Some Important Variables

Salles, Andre Assis de; Magrath, Raphael Sebastian; … - 2019

The purpose of this work is to identify variables that are relevant to the copper price setting in the international market. Thus statistical hypothesis tests and statistical tools that help to identify historical relevance and to measure the intensity of the impact of each variable on the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015265034

Forecasting Base Metal Prices with an International Stock Index

Pincheira, Pablo; Hardy, Nicolas; Bentancor, Andrea; … - 2021

In this paper we show that the MSCI ACWI Metals and Mining Index has the ability to predict base metal prices. We use both in-sample and out-of-sample exercises to conduct such examination. The theoretical underpinning of these results relies on the present-value model for stock-price...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015243686

A foreign investment project of an autoparts firm: Real options versus financial valuation

García, María Luisa Saavedra; García, Máximo Jorge … - In: Economía 38 (2013) 35, pp. 127-156

This study examines the importance of using real options model in the auto industry by means of its application to the case of a direct investment abroad, specifically in Brazil. We use the Black and Scholes and Binomial models. Empirical results show that this is the kind of project that,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010962214

The Fall of Bretton Woods: Which Geography Matters?

Ali, Leila; Lebreton, Marie - In: Economics Bulletin 33 (2013) 2, pp. 1396-1419

This paper analyses the spatial diffusion of the speculative attacks during the fall of the Bretton Woods System. First, we study the spatial heterogeneity of the relationship between speculative pressures and their determinants via a locally linear framework. Here, relationships were assumed to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010835826

Exchange Rate Puzzles: A Review of the Recent Theoretical and Empirical Developments

Mokoena, Thabo; Gupta, Rangan; Eyden, Renee van - Department of Economics, Faculty of Economic and … - 2008

This paper presents a comprehensive literature review of the theoretical and empirical developments that have taken place over the last two decades in an attempt to address the exchange rate puzzles. Specifically, we discuss non-linear and Bayesian econometric techniques, Dynamic General...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005076201

Demand for Imports in Venezuela : A Structural Time Series Approach

Cuevas, Mario A. - 2005

Using structural time series models, Cuevas estimates common stochastic trends of real GDP and imports in Venezuela from 1974-2000. The real imports trend drifts upward at almost twice the rate of growth of GDP. This highlights the powerful structural tendency toward increasing imports in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014115682