Parce qu’un projet économique est toujours fondé sur une doctrine d’essence politique, le hiatus entre intégration économique et projet politique n’existe que pour autant que le second demeure implicite. L’Europe économique est donc politique au premier chef et c’est pour cette...

Le choc démographique des baby boomers, l’allongement de la durée de la vie et le vieillissement de la population imposent d’engager aujourd’hui des politiques dont les effets futurs garantiront la soutenabilité des comptes sociaux et en particulier ceux des systèmes de retraites. Le...

Cette projection de l’économie française à l’horizon de six ans – 2010 en est le terme – a été réalisée par l’Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (OFCE) à l’aide de son modèle de simulation de l’économie française, e-mod.fr. Elle est de nature...

Assessing the ECB’s performance is unusually difficult because both the Bank and the context within which it operates - the integration of 12 national foreign exchange markets - are so radically new. There is no historical precedent. Nor are there any criteria against which to judge monetary...

The large (and increasing) output gap that characterizes the euro area suggests that aggregate demand can physically be boosted. Only fiscal policy could fulfil this task though, being monetary policy at the limit, and structural reforms linked to long term growth. The usual arguments against...

The European Constitutional Treaty (ECT) was presented by its drafters as an explicit constitution for the European Union (EU 25). A possible explanation for its rejection by the French and Dutch citizens in the course of spring 2005 is that it did not sufficiently amend the implicit...

The euro area, after a poor growth performance in 2002, has stepped aside in 2003 the word economic recovery. Concurrently, as was easily predictable since its inception, all the flaws of the SGP emerged once the European economy started to loose speed. Compared to the strongly proactive fiscal...

With respects to my last briefing paper (november 2000), the economic outlook for the euro zone has evolved, but in a direction and in extent which remain uncertain. The fashionable world is “resilient”. Most forecasting institutes expect the euro area to be relatively resilient, with growth...

With respect to relocation (delocalisation) issues two attitudes can be contrasted. According to the most standard one, relocation does not create any problem when full competition prevails in product, labour, and capital markets. Changes in transportation and production costs may generate...

The September 11th attacks on the United States and the consequent combat against international terrorism have clouded the short-term outlook for the world economy. World economic growth had already slowed considerably from the final quarter of last year. This was in part the consequence of past...