With respects to my last briefing paper (november 2000), the economic outlook for the euro zone has evolved, but in a direction and in extent which remain uncertain. The fashionable world is “resilient”. Most forecasting institutes expect the euro area to be relatively resilient, with growth...

With respect to relocation (delocalisation) issues two attitudes can be contrasted. According to the most standard one, relocation does not create any problem when full competition prevails in product, labour, and capital markets. Changes in transportation and production costs may generate...

The September 11th attacks on the United States and the consequent combat against international terrorism have clouded the short-term outlook for the world economy. World economic growth had already slowed considerably from the final quarter of last year. This was in part the consequence of past...

According to the fiscal theory of the price level (FTPL), the interactions between monetary and fiscal policies with governments facing the possibility to act in a non-Ricardian manner make the general price level be fully determined. Here, depending on the expectations framework, we show to...

The trend of female employment in France is original in comparison with the other European countries. Although French women have more children than their European sister members they are massively present on the labour market. As Jeanne Fagnani (2001) emphasises it, this paradox changes the...

La théorie budgétaire du niveau des prix, soit en anglais la Fiscal Theory of the Price Level, (FTPL), a donné lieu à une intense littérature dans les années récentes1 (Leeper [1991], Sims [1994], Woodford [1994, 1995, 1996, 1998, 1999 et 2000], Canzoneri et alii [1998], Cochrane [1999,...

The phenomena of globalisation is happening in a world populated by nation States, without any emptiness in between the Nations. What is the function of a Nation state if not to protect its population ? More than ever the Nation States of the world are well and alive – the hyper power of the...

In June 2012 European Council launched the banking union as a new project expected to contribute to solve the euro area crisis. Is banking union a necessary supplement to monetary union or a new rush forward? A banking union would break the link between the sovereign debt crisis and the banking...

The purpose of this note is to compare the characteristics of the actual Stability and Growth Pact with that of a European “modified golden rule”. The latter would consist in achieving in each EU country a cyclically-adjusted net-of-public-investment balance. The benchmark for comparison is...

This paper aims at providing a quantitative assessment of different proposals for reforming the Stability and Growth Pact by extending a counterfactual experiment performed in Eichengreen and Wyplosz (1998). Using estimated coefficients from a reduced form model, we simulate the path of the...