The Hungarian economy will slide into recession this year due to the austerity measures required to reduce the fiscal deficit to below 3% of the GDP. Further, but smaller consolidation measures will be necessary in 2013 as well. An agreement with the IMF and the EU may help partially restore...

In Romania, a bumper harvest boosted GDP by 2.5% in 2011, a one-time effect that is due to vanish in 2012. At best 1% growth can be expected, driven by private consumption. A major factor of the economic slowdown is the expected stop in credit expansion. The fiscal situation is not expected to...

The growth of Turkey's economy was over 10% year-on-year in some quarters of the period 2010-2011. It may have decelerated recently, but it is not yet certain that this will lead to a more or less soft type of ‘landing’; a swift resumption of growth is feasible. In 2011, thanks to high real...

The economy of Bosnia and Herzegovina will hardly grow substantially or may even shrink slightly in 2012. For the time being, there is nothing that would support expectations of a strong GDP decline. For the period after 2012 we can count with growth resumption, should external conditions allow...

Should the euro area continue to ‘muddle through’ and thus avoid deep recession in 2012, the Czech economy would escape recession as well. But its growth in 2012 will be depressed by the stubborn attempts to meet the fiscal targets, no matter what. A euro area recovery in 2013 and beyond...

In Bulgaria, GDP increased by 1.6% in 2011 but economic activity was weakening in the final months. While the export performance for the year as a whole was robust, sluggish domestic demand was a drag on economic growth. The process of macroeconomic rebalancing in 2011 was accompanied by a net...

In Ukraine, booming private consumption and a bumper harvest contributed to an impressive 5% GDP growth in 2011. The budget situation improved markedly, and currency depreciation pressures were successfully counteracted. However, the recent monetary policy tightening coupled with weak external...

While Slovakia achieved a successful year 2011 – with a GDP growth of about 3.3% – main challenges lie ahead. Due to the ongoing European debt crisis and worsened outlook for its main trade partners Germany and the Czech Republic, we revised our growth forecasts downwards and expect GDP to...

After a year of strong economic activity, the recessionary developments in the eurozone also impair the growth prospects of the Estonian economy. Thus, the growth of investments will abate throughout 2012 while household demand will still support the trade cycle. Moreover, the latest protests...

The Russian GDP grew by more than 4% in 2011 thanks to a robust recovery of fixed investment, construction and consumer expenditures. The contribution of net exports to GDP growth was sharply negative (despite a sizeable nominal increase in trade and current account surplus). wiiw reckons with...