Incorporating survey forecasts to a forecast-augmented Hodrick-Prescott filter, we evidence a considerable improvement to the reliability of US output-gap estimation in realtime. Odds of extracting wrong signals of output-gap estimates are found to reduce by almost a half, and the magnitude of...

A dynamic stochastic model of a small open economy with a two-level banking intermediation structure, a risk-sensitive regulatory capital regime, and imperfect capital mobility is developed. Firms borrow from a domestic bank and the bank borrows on world capital markets, in both cases subject to...

We are grateful to Denise Osborn and Eric Renault for valuable comments and to Nikolaos Sakkas for assistance with the computations. The paper has also benefited from the comments of a co-editor and three anonymous referees. An earlier version of this paper was circulated under the title...