This paper explores the hypothesis that the sources of economic and financial crises differ from non-crisis business cycle fluctuations. We employ Markov-switching Bayesian vector autoregressions (MS-BVARs) to gather evidence about the hypothesis on a long annual U.S. sample running from 1890 to...

This paper studies the joint dynamics of U.S. inflation and the average inflation predictions of the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) on a sample running from 1968Q4 to 2014Q2. The joint data generating process (DGP) of these data consists of the unobserved components (UC) model of Stock...

Recently academic researchers and practitioners have use the asymptotic expansion method to examine a variety of financial issues under high-dimensional stochastic environments. This methodology is mathematically justified by Watanabe theory (Watanabe, 1987), and Malliavin calculus (Yoshida,...

An analogy based call option pricing model is put forward. The model provides a new explanation for the implied volatility skew puzzle. The analogy model is consistent with empirical findings about returns from well studied option strategies such as covered call writing and zero-beta straddles....

We present a derivative pricing and estimation methodology for a class of stochastic volatility models that exploits the observed 'bursty' or persistent nature of stock price volatility. Empirical analysis of high-frequency S&P 500 index data confirms that volatility reverts slowly to its mean...

Policy counterfactuals based on estimated structural VARs routinely suggest that bringing Alan Greenspan back in the 1970s’ United States would not have prevented the Great Inflation. We show that a standard policy counterfactual suggests that the Bundesbank–which is near-universally...

By means of classical Itô's calculus we decompose option prices as the sum of the classical Black-Scholes formula with volatility parameter equal to the root-mean-square future average volatility plus a term due by correlation and a term due to the volatility of the volatility. This...

We study a new parametric approach for particular hidden stochastic models. This method is based on contrast minimization and deconvolution and can be applied, for example, for ecological and financial state space models. After proving consistency and asymptotic normality of the estimation...