We introduce a variant of the smooth transition autoregression - the GSTAR model - capable to parametrize the asymmetry in the tails of the transition equation by using a particular generalization of the logistic function. A General-to-Specific modelling strategy is discussed in detail, with...

This study analyzes the dynamic relationship between stock prices and stock fundamentals. We focus on the Euro Stoxx 50 index, a major eurozone stock index, and its dividend futures. From the observed prices of the dividend futures and Euribor (swap) rates, we calculate the transition of term...

This paper considers the cross-quantilogram, which measures the quantile dependence between time series. We apply it to test the hypothesis that one time series has no directional predictability to another time series. We establish the asymptotic distribution of the cross quantilogram and the...

In this chapter we consider a class of parametric spectrum estimators based on a generalized linear model for exponential random variables with power link. The power transformation of the spectrum of a stationary process can be expanded in a Fourier series, with the coefficients representing...

Spanish Abstract: La hipótesis de mercado eficiente afirma que los cambios en los precios de un activo financiero siguen una caminata aleatoria y dependen de la información que se incorpora al mercado de manera instantánea, por tanto no son predecibles; por otro lado la hipótesis de mercado...

Sentiment is shown to influence both West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent futures prices during the period 2002-2013. This is demonstrated while controlling for stock indices, exchange rates, financial costs, inventory and supply levels as well as OPEC activity. Sentiment indices are...

We examine the long term dynamic relation between inflation and the price of gold. We begin by showing that there is no cointegration between gold and the consumer price index (CPI) if the volatile period of the early 1980s is excluded from the data. However, we are also able to demonstrate that...

This paper investigates model dynamics and risk premia in the short term market for crude oil futures. Stochastic volatility models, with and without jumps, are estimated using data on both futures and option prices. As an economic application we apply the estimated models to the pricing of...

Jedną z metod przewidywania skutków decyzji jest posługiwanie się symulacyjnymi i analitycznymi modelami gospodarki narodowej lub jej wycinków. Konstrukcja dobrego makromodelu to przedsięwzięcie trudne, kosztowne i długotrwałe. Wymagania informacyjne tradycyjnych makromodeli są...

This paper tests the hypothesis on market efficiency for returns on the euro against fifteen currencies while assuming predictability of returns, dependent on the sign and magnitude of endogenous shocks. Considering the properties of exchange rate returns, the quantile autoregression approach...