On several occasions technical analysis rules have been shown to have predictive power. The main purpose of this work is to decompose the predictive power of the moving average trading rule and isolate the portion that could be attributed to the possible exploitation of linear and non linear...

This study analyzes information production and trading behavior of banks with lending relationships. We combine trade-by-trade supervisory data and credit-registry data to examine banks' proprietary trading in borrower stocks around a large number of corporate events. We find that relationship...

We build a parsimonious agent-based model under the adaptive market hypothesis (AMH), which can explain the formation of equilibrium prices and market efficiency dynamics. Our model combines heterogeneous interacting agents, switching behavior, and investor feedback on past realized returns,...

A linear return generating model is introduced. This model is a generalization in discrete time of the differential equation describing dynamical systems in continuous time. The model is useful in its own right, as it provides a simplified, yet credible, quantitative description of the reality....

We examine the real effects of stock market efficiency by analyzing how noise in stock prices affects the efficiency of capital allocation. Using data from 42 countries and a long time-series, we find that the efficiency of capital allocation across firms (the sensitivity of corporate investment...

In this paper, we explore whether the adaptive markets hypothesis (AMH) describes the efficiency of the Finnish stock market better than the efficient markets hypothesis (EMH) does. Building on this, we also test how small market size and market liberalisation impact the efficiency of the...

Stock markets, just like other sectors of businesses have been impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. COVID-19 has caused things to change in some sort; behavior, culture, and economy. Investors’ behavior and expectations may have been shaken. Huge stock market dislocations may have occurred as...

We study the informational efficiency of the Saudi stock market (SSM), while accounting for corporate governance change, based on single, multiple, and variance ratio-based WALD tests and runs test. The main findings indicate that when the whole period is considered, the random walk hypothesis...

Market microstructure invariance (MMI) stipulates that trading costs of financial assets are driven by the volume and volatility of bets, that are, transactions intended to produce idiosyncratic gains based on investors’ beliefs. With futures transactions data, we estimate bet volume as the...

This paper examines whether the efficiency market hypothesis for the Greek sovereign debt holds. As in Blanco et al. (2005) we test the theoretical equivalence of credit default swap (CDS) and spreads that dictates a CI relationship between the two. The main innovation of the present analysis is...