We would like to propose a new framework for monetary policy analysis that encompasses, as a special case, the Neo … rate both matter for determining inflation and economic activity. …

inflation and rising inflation expectations for years to come. We show that these concerns have been overstated. A $100 oil … scenario of the type discussed by many observers, would only briefly raise monthly headline inflation, before fading rather … quickly. However, the short-run effects on headline inflation would be sizable. For example, on a year-over-year basis …

inflation and rising inflation expectations for years to come. We show that these concerns have been overstated. A $100 oil … scenario of the type discussed by many observers, would only briefly raise monthly headline inflation, before fading rather … quickly. However, the short-run effects on headline inflation would be sizable. For example, on a yearover-year basis …

estimating the effect on overall headline inflation, we examine effects on its 12 main sub-indices and further sub-categories of … food price inflation. This allows us to disentangle differences in the direction and strength of price effects across … consumption categories. Our results suggest significant positive effects of natural disasters on overall headline inflation, with …

The conventional wisdom that inflation expectations respond to the level of the price of oil (or the price of gasoline … price shocks may indeed drive one-year household inflation expectations. The model shows that there have been several such … episodes since 1990. In particular, the rise in household inflation expectations between 2009 and 2013 is almost entirely …

The paper presents the welfare cost of inflation in a banking time economy that models exchange credit through a bank … welfare cost of a 10% inflation rate instead of zero, for comparison to other estimates, as well as the cost of a 2% inflation … rate instead of a zero inflation rate. The zero rate is specified as the US inflation rate target in the 1978 Employment …

Trimmed-mean Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation does not clearly dominate ex-food-and-energy PCE … inflation in real-time forecasting of headline PCE inflation. However, trimmed-mean inflation is the superior communications and … policy tool because it is a less-biased real-time estimator of headline inflation and because it more successfully filters …

Inflation dynamics have been difficult to explain over the last decade. This paper explores if a more comprehensive … treatment of globalization can help. CPI inflation has become more synchronized around the world since the 2008 crisis, but core … and wage inflation have become less synchronized. Global factors (including commodity prices, world slack, exchange rates …