Survey data are widely used to provide indicators of economic activity ahead of the publication of official data. This paper proposes an indicator based on a theoretically consistent procedure for quantifying firm-level survey responses that are ordered and categorical. Firms' survey responses...

A range of monthly series are currently available giving indications of short-term movements in output in the United Kingdom. As the only available information, these indicators are routinely exploited in various ways although they only provide an incomplete picture of gross domestic product...

Traditionally forecasts of macroeconomic aggregates are extracted from prospective qualitative survey data by relating official data on the aggregate to both the proportion of survey respondents who are 'optimists' and the proportion who are 'pessimists'. But there is no reason to focus on these...

We project that the output of the economy in the three months ending in August was 0.8% higher than in the previous three months. GDP, therefore, continues to grow above trend. It is likely that there will be a need for further interest rate rises.� Our track record in producing early...

We derive monthly and quarterly series of UK GDP for the inter-war period from a set of indicators that were constructed at the time. We proceed to illustrate how the new data can contribute to our understanding of the economic history of the UK in the 1930s and have also used the series to draw...

Presentation at 1st Macroeconomic Forecasting Conference, ISAE, Rome. Conference co-hosted by ISAE, INSEE and IFO

This paper generalizes the probability method of quantification [Carlson and Parkin, Economica, 1975] to the variance facilitating the quantification of survey data which ask individuals whether they are uncertain. An application evaluates time-series and cross-sectional proxies of uncertainty...

This papers identifies the information content at the firm-level of qualitative business survey data by first examining the consistency between these data and the quantitative data provided by the same respondents to the UK's ONS in official surveys. Since the qualitative data are published...

This research has been supported by the Joseph Rowntree Foundation. Summary points There is widespread concern about rising levels of debt prompted by the rising overall levels of debt and the increasing reports of people having difficulties in managing their debts. Analysis of the data on...

Mortality rates computed from data reported in the British Household Panel Survey are lower than those computed from registration of deaths; the main source of this error is likely to be a failure to distinguish non-response due to unreported death from other forms of non-response. Here we model...