Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.4 per cent in the three months ending in May after growth of 0.1 per cent in the three months ending in April. Economic growth in the UK remains subdued. These figures suggest the level of output is still almost 4 per cent below its...

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The production of this forecast is supported by the Institute's Corporate Members: Bank of England, HM Treasury, Mizuho Research Institute Ltd, the Office for National Statistics, Santander (UK) plc and by the members of the NiGEM users group.

¥ After contracting by 4.3 per cent this year the economy will grow by 1 per cent in 2010. ¥ Consumer spending will fall by 3.5 per cent in 2009 and by 1.1 per cent next year. ¥ Unemployment will peak at almost 3m or 9.3 per cent of the labour force in spring 2011. ¥ House prices...