¥ The economy will shrink by 4.3 per cent this year, and then experience a weak recovery, with GDP rising by 0.9 per cent in 2010. ¥ The unemployment rate will peak at 9.6 per cent in 2011. ¥ Consumer spending will fall by 3.7 per cent this year and a further 1.1 per cent in 2010. ¥...

Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.7 per cent in the three months ending in July after growth of 0.6 per cent in the three months ending in June 2013. These estimates suggest a narrowing of the UK’s large negative output gap. Consumer spending growth has underpinned the...

Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.1 per cent in the three months ending in March after no growth in the three months ending in February 2012. These data suggest the UK economy has avoided a ‘technical’ recession (two consecutive quarters of decline). With such weak...

� Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output declined by 0.3 per cent in the three months ending in December after growth of 0.1 per cent in the three months ending in November 2012. These estimates suggest a growth rate of 0.0 per cent in 2012, down from 0.9 per cent in 2011. These...

Summarised from the National Institute Economic Review, number 193, July 2005. To order a the full version of this article or a subscription, please contact Sage Publications by telephone: +44 (0) 20 7324 8701, email: mailto:subscriptions@sagepub.co.uk or online at http://ner.sagepub.com. Recent...

After two years in which the economy has grown above its trend rate of around 2.6 per cent, it will slow to 2.0 per cent in 2008, picking up only modestly to 2.4 per cent in 2009. Its performance will be especially weak in the first half of 2008, when quarterly growth will drop to below 0.4 per...

Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.5 per cent in the three months ending in October after 0.8 per cent in the three months ending in September. The UK economy’s strong performance over the past 7 months does not suggest a further round of quantitative easing is...