Recently there has been growing interest in examining the potential short-term link between survey-based confidence indicators and real economic activity, notably for macroeconomic policy making. This paper builds on previous studies to establish whether there is a short-term predictive...

Simple time series models looking for the effect of financial crises on output generally find that they reduce the sustainable level of output permanently. However, not all crises are the same, with some being caused by recessions and others causing or preceding recessions. Using a common...

The consensus among financial regulators is that Tier 2 capital is inferior to Tier 1, both in terms of incentives for an ongoing bank and regarding the protection it offers in the case of failure. Some economists, while not denying the benefits of Tier 1, suggest that there may be benefits of...

Presentation at DG ECFIN 8th July 2005

Brunel University economics department Discussion Paper, Presented at a 6th Framework conference, Berlin, July 2005 Submitted to Weltwirtschafts Archiv