We investigate the performance of a default risk model based on the barrier option framework with maximum likelihood estimation. We provide empirical validation of the model by showing that implied default barriers are statistically significant for a sample of construction firms in Taiwan over...

Recent research has established the existence of log-periodic power law (LPPL) patterns in financial institutions’ credit default swap (CDS) spreads. The main purpose of this paper is to clarify why credit risk markets are predestined for exhibiting LPPL structures. To this end, the credit...

Using data from a Taiwanese finance company, this paper empirically investigates the value of soft information, information that requires the subjective interpretation by the loan officers who collect it and cannot be credibly transmitted to others, for making small business loans. It finds that...

This article has an aim to assess credit default prediction on the banking market in Bosnia and Herzegovina nationwide as well as on its constitutional entities (Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and Republika Srpska). Ability to classify companies info different predefined groups or finding...

A firm’s current leverage ratio is one of the core characteristics of credit quality used in statistical default prediction models. Based on the capital structure literature, which shows that leverage is mean-reverting to a target leverage, we forecast future leverage ratios and include them...

This paper first reviews empirical evidence and estimation methods of structural credit risk models. Next, an empirical investigation of the performance of default prediction under the down-and-out barrier option framework is provided. In the literature review, a brief overview of the structural...

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to do a performance comparison of three different data mining techniques. Design/methodology/approach Logit model, decision tree and random forest are applied in this study on British, French, German, Italian, Portuguese and Spanish balance sheet data from...

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to assess the significance of the Merton distance-to-default (DD) in predicting defaults for a sample of listed Indian firms. Design/methodology/approach – The study uses a matched pair sample of defaulting and non-defaulting listed Indian firms. It...