Based on a model linking ascent prerequisites, relative decline, long-wave dynamics, and systemic war, the relationships among the pace of technological innovation, relative economic position, and naval capability are examined for Britain (1780-1913) and the United States (1870-1980). In both...

One of the factors thought to explain the relative decline of system leaders is the high military overhead costs assumed by leaders. High defense burdens, however, may be achieved at the expense of investment, capital formation, and future economic growth. By evading the high defense burdens,...

Processes of war, trade, and systemic leadership are often examined in isolation from one another. Sometimes, two of the three are studied together. Does war interrupt trade? Does systemic leadership reduce the level of warfare? Does systemic leadership lead to freer trade? While these are...

Strategic rivalry dyads facilitate conflict, while democratic dyads constrain conflict. Which effect is more powerful? Examining conflict (militarized disputes and war) in the major power subsystem (1816-1992), both types of relationships are statistically significant predictors of conflict, and...

The Gartner-Siverson war initiation model's focus on selection bias and initiators selecting vulnerable targets is attractive, but it demands further specification. A predictive model of war initiations might not retain statistical significance after 1945. The authors examine 16 possibly related...

This study involves a longitudinal investigation of the short-term and long-term effects of the Syrian military intervention (June 1976) on Lebanese domestic conflict. The inquiry also includes an analysis of the strategic timing of the intervention in Lebanon. Variables such as the level of...

This article introduces an evolutionary framework for the de-escalation of protracted conflicts. Key variables are political shocks, expectancy revision, policy entrepreneurship, third-party pressure, and reciprocity. The model is tested in the context of the Israeli-Palestinian case, 1979-98. A...