Using 11 nationally representative surveys conducted between 1993 and 2005 this paper assesses the extent to which the vulnerability of orphans to poorer educational outcomes has changed over time as the AIDS crisis deepens in South Africa. This paper seeks to establish whether the fear that...

In this paper we empirically analyse the impact of retirement benefits on consumption and personal saving in South Africa using the Feldstein 1974 specification and procedure. By using a basic extended Ando-Modigliani life cycle model we show that the introduction of retirement programs crowds...

We show how to estimate kernel density functions of distributions in which some of the responses are provided in brackets, by inverse probability weighting. We consider two cases, one where the data are CAR and where the data are not CAR. We show how the selection probabilities can be estimated...

This paper uses the Dynamic Factor Model (DFM) framework, which accommodates a large cross-section of macroeconomic time series for forecasting regional house price inflation. As a case study, we use data on house price inflation for five metropolitan areas of South Africa. The DFM used in this...

While economic theory assumes that risk is of central importance in financial decision making, it is difficult to measure the uncertainty faced by investors. Commonly used empirical proxies for risk (such as the moving standard deviation of the returns on an asset) are not firmly grounded in...

e availability of secure energy resources at sustainable quantities and affordable prices is fundamental to South Africa’s current objective of enhancing and sustaining its current growth trajectory. Economic reforms, since the early 1990s, have led to the economy growing at an average...

Inequality is a major concern in many of the world’s developing regions. South Africa is no exception, as the voluminous literature on the subject attests to (see Bhorat and Kanbur 2006, for example). Indeed, modern South Africa is one of the most unequal societies in the world, primarily...

We implement a recursive out-of-sample method to examine anomalies-based ex-ante predictability in the cross-section of stock returns. We obtain a series of simulated out-of-sample returns, consistent with investors using only prior information when choosing predictor variables. We find that, by...

How do poor households respond to the cessation of cash transfers in developing countries? South Africa's generous social pension system results in most of the poor elderly being the primary `breadwinner' in the household. I estimate the magnitude of the changes in household composition and...

Using two dynamic monetary general equilibrium models characterized by endogenous growth, financial repression and endogenously determined tax evasion, we analyze whether financial repression can be explained by tax evasion. When calibrated to four Southern European economies, we show that...