A country's most important asset is its people. This paper outlines the development of Britain's human resources since the middle of the 19th century. It focuses on four key elements. The first is the demographic transition - the processes through which birth rates and death rates fell, leading...

This paper studies the population estimates for 1500 of the current territory of Colombia. It reviews the literature and analyzes critically the methods and sources used in the field. We conclude that there is no consensus on population estimates for the period, much less with respect to the...

This paper examines son preferences by specifying sex composition by birth order of existing children as key independent variables. The results indicate a lexicographic preference for a son by mothers aged 50 years and older. Mothers without a son are also under substantial pressure to bear more...

This paper analyzes the implications of unobserved heterogeneity in discrete-time, discrete-choice microsimulation models. We compare the predictions coming from simple pooled probit estimates with those obtained using random effect dynamic probit models, in a dynamic microsimulation of...

Dynamic microsimulation modeling involves two stages: estimation and forecasting. Unobserved heterogeneity is often considered in estimation, but not in forecasting, beyond trivial cases. Non-trivial cases involve individuals that enter the simulation with a history of previous outcomes. We show...

Deutschland gibt mehr Geld für Familienpolitik aus als andere Industrieländer. Trotz dieser hohen Ausgaben scheinen die Maßnahmen im internationalen Vergleich wenig erfolgreich zu sein. Denn während die Förderleistungen für Familien in den letzten Jahren kontinuierlich stiegen, gingen die...

Dynamic microsimulation modeling involves two stages: estimation and forecasting. Unobserved heterogeneity is often considered in estimation, but not in forecasting, beyond trivial cases. Non-trivial cases involve individuals that enter the simulation with a history of previous outcomes. We show...

Adolescent fertility in low- and middle-income countries presents a severe impediment to development and can lead to school dropout, lost productivity, and the intergenerational transmission of poverty. However, there is debate about whether adolescent pregnancy is a problem in and of itself or...

The early 20th century was a period of rising marriage rate and falling age at marriage. This was due to two factors affecting men. First, men's improving labor market prospects made them more attractive as marriage partners. Second, immigration had a dynamic effect on search costs. In the...

We use individual-level data to show that divorce is pro-cyclical on average, a finding robust to the inclusion of a wide range of controls. Pro-cyclical divorce is concentrated among women who married young and/or do not have a college degree.