Using U.S. real-time data, we show that changes in the unemployment rate unexplained by Okun's Law have significant … a change in potential GDP, the equilibrium unemployment rate, or the use of labor's intensive margin. …

In this work the precision and stability of the forecasts of Chile's unemployment rates are analyzed. Said models were … the signs of persistence that the unemployment indicator shows in its behavior; nevertheless, starting from the estimation … obtained, which empirically upholds the proposal of addressing the unemployment rate as a non stationary series. The evaluation …

characterize the responses of vacancy creation and unemployment. Vacancies decline in response to the shock when firms expect … the unemployment rate peaks at 19.7%, 2 months after the shock, and takes 1 year to return to 5%. Relative to a scenario … without the shock, unemployment uncertainty rises by a factor of 11. Nonlinear methods are crucial. In the linear economy, the …

state-level initial unemployment insurance claims, changes in the unemployment rate, and changes in private employment. The …

predict unemployment in Spain. We include a new predictor for Spanish unemployment based on internet information provided by … queries and unemployment. Besides that, the inclusion of internet activity enhances model's prediction performance …

This paper develops new estimates of flows into and out of unemployment that allow for unobserved heterogeneity across … workers as well as direct effects of unemployment duration on unemployment-exit probabilities. Unlike any previous paper in … shocks to the short-run, medium-run, and long-run variance of unemployment as well as to specific historical episodes. We …

Downward wage rigidity is central to many explanations of unemployment fluctuations. In benchmark models, the wage for … changes at the job level. When wages do change, they fall infrequently. Second, when unemployment rises, wages do not fall … — but wages do rise strongly as unemployment falls. We show prior strategies cannot detect downward rigidity due to job …

disaggregate unemployment and in the cross-sectional differences across individuals of the duration of unemployment spells. The …-space model of Ahn and Hamilton (2016). I found that the contribution of each factor to the dynamics of disaggregate unemployment …

disaggregate unemployment and in the cross-sectional differences across individuals of the duration of unemployment spells. The …-space model of Ahn and Hamilton (2016). I found that the contribution of each factor to the dynamics of disaggregate unemployment …