Using U.S. real-time data, we show that changes in the unemployment rate unexplained by Okun's Law have significant … a change in potential GDP, the equilibrium unemployment rate, or the use of labor's intensive margin. …

This paper develops new estimates of flows into and out of unemployment that allow for unobserved heterogeneity across … workers as well as direct effects of unemployment duration on unemployment-exit probabilities. Unlike any previous paper in … shocks to the short-run, medium-run, and long-run variance of unemployment as well as to specific historical episodes. We …

state-level initial unemployment insurance claims, changes in the unemployment rate, and changes in private employment. The …

In this paper we study international linkages when forecasting unemployment rates in a sample of 24 OECD economies. We … propose a Global Unemployment Factor (GUF) and test its predictive ability considering in-sample and out-of-sample exercises … information to predict domestic unemployment rates, at least for these last seven countries …

characterize the responses of vacancy creation and unemployment. Vacancies decline in response to the shock when firms expect … the unemployment rate peaks at 19.7%, 2 months after the shock, and takes 1 year to return to 5%. Relative to a scenario … without the shock, unemployment uncertainty rises by a factor of 11. Nonlinear methods are crucial. In the linear economy, the …

In this paper, we assess several methods that have been used to measure the Canadian trend unemployment rate (TUR). We … extent to which methods provide explanations for changes in trend unemployment; (ii) whether revisions to unemployment gap … (UGAP, the difference between the actual unemployment rate and TUR) estimates are well behaved; (iii) if UGAPs provide …

predict unemployment in Spain. We include a new predictor for Spanish unemployment based on internet information provided by … queries and unemployment. Besides that, the inclusion of internet activity enhances model's prediction performance …

at risk in the euro area and in the United States. We model the asymmetry of the shocks to changes in the unemployment … the unemployment rate displays time-varying volatility and skewness, with peaks coinciding with the Global Financial … risk defined as the possible joint event of large increases in the unemployment rate and large annual rates of inflation …

unemployment rate in Australia. Okun's law also implies a rate of output growth consistent with stable unemployment, called the … growth of potential output. Our estimates of potential output growth are imprecise and fluctuate over time. A recent estimate …

unemployment rate are estimated by Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. The Markov switching model is identified by constraining the … difference of the unemployment rate. Out of sample forecasts are obtained from Bayesian predictive densities. Although both …