Chang, Chia-Lin; de Bruijn, Bert; Franses, Philip Hans; … - In: International Journal of Forecasting 29 (2013) 4, pp. 622-627
numerical forecasts can be decomposed into both an econometric model and random expert intuition. We show that the … intuition, and the current and lagged correlations between intuition and news (or shocks to the numerical forecasts). It follows …